NIGERIA IS FIGHTING LOW GRADE CIVIL WAR – OLISA AGBAKOBA

‘Buhari’s structure to tackle corruption is weak’

Mr. Olisa Agbakoba (SAN) is a former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). Agbakoba, in this interview, speaks on the state
of the nation.

By Ikenna Asomba.

President Muhammadu Buhari has spent one year in office. Three months ago, you warned that Nigeria was sliding into recession. Do you maintain that stance?

Yes, about three months ago, I said Nigeria was sliding into recession, because a recession is two quarterly negative growths. So, now that the politically incorrect word – recession – has finally been said by the Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, let me say that we are not in recession, but in depression. Nigeria has recorded five consecutive quarterly growths up to 2016 first quarter (Q1), which showed a negative balance. That is a depression. Critically speaking, nobody is making profit. We calculate the growth rate by Gross Domestic Product divided by the population, thus goods and services produced are divided by the population. The current growth rate for 2016 Q1 according to the NBS is 0.34. The last, which was 2015 Q4, was 2.11. So, we are now at a depression stage. And if you know what the critical index is, you find out that things are really bad. The Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, is zero, the stock market is down, petroleum prices are up. No good news.

 However, in appraising the one year in office of President Buhari, we must acknowledge the crisis of the old order and the hope of change. The path of the old order remains that things were very difficult, there was high corruption, there was insecurity, we had the Boko Haram menace among others. The pertinent question you then ask is, how has President Buhari handled them?

In the beginning of this administration, I was cautiously positive but right now I am cautiously negative. But I am waiting to see what will happen. In all fairness to President Buhari, he has been challenged by the unenvisaged crisis of governance he found- a technically insolvent country, bailouts and many of those things which meant he was bugged down and couldn’t get into governance.

Over the last one year, what do you make of President Buhari’s anti-corruption war? *

 Olisa Agbakoba* Olisa Agbakoba Credit must go to him on his anti-corruption programme. However, my problem with his anti-corruption programme is that it’s a rigmarole. The programme has centred on stories that government is doing this and that, which is good. But I must say that if the President keeps looking in the rear mirror, as he had been doing in the last one year, he won’t move. The Buhari’s anti-corruption programme is an equivalent of a driver who is looking at the rear mirror to see what is happening behind. Such a drive won’t move forward. We know that people had stolen money, but what we want to see is an aggressive action plan. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, and other law enforcement agencies, don’t have the resources, capacity and the skills to fight corruption. However, I am proud to say that there has been some strong action plan on the path of the Buhari administration in tackling corruption. You have said that given the statistics released by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, and the NBS, Nigeria is in depression. However, some people believe the economy got this bad because President Buhari has no economic policy. What is your take? What gives me the greatest concern is the unclear economic direction of this government. I see two competing forces in the Buhari administration. I see state control from the President and I see private sector framework from the Vice President. A good example is the handling of the shortages of petroleum products. Marketers were excluded Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation was asked to solely import and distribute, and they failed. The government ran back to the marketers who now demanded a special rate, and they got N285, the current PPPRA template. So, I see that tension within government. One is state enterprise and the other is private enterprise. This confusion has led to four foreign exchange regimes. Nigeria’s forex policy is unclear and uncertain. We have the CBN rate, the rate for fuel importers, the rate at the autonomous markets and the rate at the “black market.” People who can access forex at the official CBN rate would offload to the next rate. This breeds corruption from differentials in the four markets. So, I’m going to give President Buhari’s government below average in respect to how it has managed Nigeria’s macro, economic issues. By macro-economic issues, I don’t mean operational activities. You can find good policies from the Minister of Works, Housing and Power, Babatunde Fashola, on roads and power, that is fine. But if you don’t have an over-arching policy, there would be a problem. What do you suggest the administration should do to take Nigerians out of the economic doldrum? I must say that our leaders don’t read. Between 1929 and 1945, America went through hell. First, they had Herbert Hoover who left America broke, destitute and in great depression. Then came Franklin Roosevelt, who came in and proclaimed a new policy called The New Deal, which is similar to ‘Change’. But in proclaiming The New Deal, Roosevelt was sure of what direction he would take. He allowed the private sector to do those things they do best and he embarked on public sector programming. In four years, he turned around the American economy because there was a clear direction. But here, there isn’t a clear direction for now. However, I feel President Buhari is more concerned on how not to inflict pains on Nigerians. But the way to do that is to also spend the money in the budget. I personally believe in deregulation and liberalization, because it’s the way forward. So, it is a policy that government has to accept. This confusion in government’s policy, on the one hand- state enterprises – and on the other hand, liberalization would continue to keep us in this mess, and we may not come out of this depression. However, if government announces complete deregulation and liberalization of the economy, by 2016 Q2, which would end by June/July, we would begin to witness growth. If this happens, I predict growth should return to about two per cent. With the right stimulation, not mere N350 billion, we should witness further growth at the end of 2016. Nigeria needs about $50 trillion to stimulate the economy. Yes, Nigeria doesn’t have the kind of money, but Buhari and his team must seek creative ways to source the money. Also, I have nothing against Foreign Direct Investment coming to fix things, which is the policy the Chinese has adopted. However, for the Buhari administration to fix the economy, I urge members of his team, like Vice President Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, Ministers Babatunde Fashola and Kayode Fayemi, to read the ABC of how Roosevelt fixed the American economy, in the book, “The Coming of The New Deal,” by Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., and also they can read the ABC of how China was able to fix it’s economy, in the book, “China’s Disruptors, by Edward Tse. China is a communist nation and the king of central planning. But they decided to open the economy. Here in Nigeria, why would government want to close the economy and fail to privatize the ports. China involved the private sector. We have the likes of ALIBABA, Lenovo, which are now flooding the Nigerian market. The Chinese made progress, because their economic policy is clear. A man who wants to do business knows what he’s doing and he’s supported by government. Again, the Chinese have settled issues like those aspects of the economy where they feel government should control such as the steel industry, port development among others. So, with the mix of both, there is rapid growth and development in China. I feel the biggest problem we face in Nigeria is not recognizing that we are in depression and not recession. That is the first challenge. Even though, some people would come out tomorrow and say it’s not true, the question is, what is government’s response to this? We need to see the response so that we can turn things around. From Q4 2014 to Q1 2016 Nigeria has been in dire economic strait. The critical nuggets to turn things around must be put in place, because they are not in place. Confusion as to whether we are liberalizing or regulating different aspects of our economy is keeping investors away. The only way Nigeria can grow and sustain development to attract 5-10 percent GDP is to have an open deregulated economy. This will bring hardship but, with a robust social benefit agency to properly implement welfare package in the budget, a substantial cushion can be provided. The priority must be to diversify the economy and make it less dependent on imports. Nigeria has long depended on crude oil as if it is the only hydrocarbon to the utter neglect of gas. The economy heavily relies on oil revenue and is vulnerable to price shocks in oil and the associated risk to national stability. The most recent volatility in oil prices suggests that we must start to diversify our revenue income streams by developing non-oil tradable sectors. A clear strategy, model and plan for economic diversification, both horizontally and vertically, is necessary. Horizontal diversification should explore new opportunities in the same oil and gas sector. There are at least 36 value added products to be explored in the extraction of crude oil. Vertical diversification means a shift from the oil and gas sector to other sectors: Agriculture, services, maritime, aviation/space, manufacturing, health, sports among others. Pursuing economic diversification will make the economy less vulnerable to the boom and burst cycles of oil and natural gas prices. A model we can follow is the United Arab Emirate which has successfully diversified out of oil into new revenue sources. It is like the Boko Haram menace has fizzled out. But with the resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta region, several separatists group agitating for Biafra in the South-South, and the Fulani herdsmen menace, how do you rate Buhari on security? The administration has had flip-flops in the area of security of lives and property. We have the herdsmen menace, the Biafran question, and the renewed Niger Delta militancy. However, there have been successes in containing the Boko Haram crisis. So, we need a new counter-insecurity apparatus that can deliver results. In appraising, I must say something has happened. But what is missing is what the Europeans realized over 600 years ago. Without peace and stability, you can’t make progress. At the moment, Nigeria is in low grade civil war, because there are few places you can go, today, without thinking, is this place safe? Nigeria is in a low grade civil war, which many Nigerians don’t realise, because they are participants. But if one travels out and returns; from the airport, with all the conflicts everywhere, one would describe Nigeria as a country in a low grade civil war. In the Niger Delta, the militants have been bombing oil facilities and we are now back to 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day. That is very serious. In this light, I would appraise the Buhari’s government approach as rather poor. I think it is important the government to realise that it has to put political stability on top of its agenda. We need to re-balance the federation. We need to include all Nigerians. The more Nigerians are excluded from the actions of government, the more the people will feel there are special people in Abuja, who have the magic wand to solve all the problems. So, I think the President’s handling of political stability issues has been rather weak. Going forward, President Buhari would need to address how to make Nigeria a place where all Nigerians would participate. This is to ensure that little things that should not cause problems, would not have these national consequences. When you have peace and stability, then, you can talk about planning.